Assam: Decoding BJP-led NDA’s shifting political dynamics

The BJP on Thursday announced 88 candidates for the April-9 Assam Assembly elections under a new NDA seat-sharing arrangement: BJP 89 seats, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) 26, and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) 11 in the 126-member Assembly. In 2021, the NDA—then comprising the BJP, AGP and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL)—had won 75 seats.

For 2026, however, the saffron party brought the BPF back into its fold, while the UPPL exited the alliance amid strained negotiations and reported ideological differences, thus marking a significant shift in the ruling coalition’s dynamics in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) comprising 15 Assembly constituencies.

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Apparently, the UPPL had asked for a “respectable” seven seats but was being given only four, while the BPF was allocated 11 constituencies. But despite being a key BJP ally since 2020 and jointly forming the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) government, it was overshadowed when the BPF, despite earlier setbacks, re-emerged as a dominant force.

For the BJP, the switch is largely strategic, winning-oriented. By opting for the BPF, the BJP seems to be following a pragmatic, results-driven approach, given the BPF’s performance in the local body elections. By allocating 11 seats to the BPF, the BJP could be trying to consolidate Bodo votes under what it perceives as a stronger ally against the opposition.

Sources, however, say, even if the UPPL cuts into this base, the BJP is keeping communication channels with its leaders, even though party chief and Rajya Sabha MP-elect Pramod Boro has entered the Assembly poll fray as a candidate outside the NDA. Interestingly, Baro was one of the three candidates from the ruling NDA who were recently elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha from Assam.

State leaders say stakes are high for everyone, including the BJP but more for the UPPL. “Outside the NDA, the UPPL loses access to the collective organisational strength as well as advantages of association with the ruling state government. It will now be in direct confrontation with the BJP and principal rival BPF while attempting to establish itself as an independent regional force. At the same time, the break allows the UPPL to reclaim its ideological identity and tap into anti-BJP sentiment,” they add.